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Here is how to play the altcoin game - for newbies & champs
I have been here for many previous altcoin seasons (2013,2017 etc) and wanted to share knowedle. It's a LOOONG article. The evaluation of altcoins (i.e not Bitcoin) is one of the most difficult and profitable exercises. Here I will outline my methodology and thinking but we have to take some things as a given. The first is that the whole market is going up or down with forces that we can't predict or control. Bitcoin is correlated with economic environments, money supply increases, safe havens such as Gold, hype and country regulations. This is an impossible mix to analyze and almost everyone fails at it. That's why you see people valuing Bitcoin from $100 to $500k frequently. Although I am bullish on the prospects of Bitcoin and decentralization and smart contract platforms, this is not the game I will be describing. I am talking about a game where you try to maximize your BTC holdings by investing in altcoins. We win this game even if we are at a loss in fiat currency value. To put it another way:
If you are not bullish in general on cryptocurrencies you have no place in investing or trading cryptocurrencies since it's always a losing proposition to trade in bubbles, a scientifically proven fact. If on the other hand you are then your goal is to grow your portfolio more than you would if holding BTC/ETH for example.
Bitcoin is the big boy
How the market works is not easily identifiable if you haven't graduated from the 2017 crypto university. When there is a bull market everything seems amazingly profitable and things keep going up outgrowing Bitcoin by orders of magnitude and you are a genius. The problem with this is that it only works while Bitcoin is going up a little bit or trades sideways. When it decides to move big then altcoins lose value both on the way up and on the way down. The second part is obvious and proven since all altcoins from 2017 are at a fraction of their BTC value (usually in the range of 80% or more down). Also, when BTC is making a big move upwards everyone exits altcoins to ride the wave. It is possible that the altcoin market behaves as an inversed leveraged ETF with leakage where in a certain period while Bitcoin starts at 10k and ends at 10k for example, altcoins have lost a lot of value because of the above things happening.
We are doing it anyway champ!
OK so we understand the risks and just wanna gambol with our money right? I get it. Why do that? Because finding the ideal scenario and period can be extremely profitable. In 2017 several altcoins went up 40x more than BTC. But again, if you don't chose wisely many of them have gone back to zero (the author has first hand experience in this!), they have been delisted and nobody remembers them. The actual mentality to have is very important and resembles poker and other speculative games: A certain altcoin can go up in value indefinitely but can only lose it's starting investment. Think about it. You either lose 1 metric or gain many many more. Now that sounds amazing but firstly as we said we have the goal to outperform our benchmark (BTC) and secondly that going up in value a lot means that the probability is quite low. There is this notion of Expected Value (EV) that poker players apply in these kind of situations and it goes like that. If you think that a certain coin has a probability let's say 10% to go up 10X and 90% probability it goes to zero it's an even bet. If you think that probability is 11% then it's a good bet, a profitable bet and you should take it. You get the point right? It's not that it can only go 10X or 0X, there is a whole range of probability outcomes that are too mathematical to explain here and it doesn't help so much because nobody can do such analysis with altcoins. See below on how we can approximate it.
How to evaluate altcoins
A range of different things to take into account outlined below will form our decision making. Not a single one of them should dictate 100% of our strategy.
It's all about market cap. Repeat after me. The price of a coin doesn't mean anything. Say it 10 times until you believe it. I can't remember how many times I had conversations with people that were comparing coins using their coin price instead of their market cap. To make this easy to get.
If I decide because the sky is blue to make my coin supply 100 Trillion FoolCoins with a price of $0.001 and there is another WiseCoin with a supply of 100 Million and price of $1 then FoolCoins are more expensive. - Alex Fin's Cap Law
This is done usually in the stock world and it means that each company has some fundamental value that includes it's assets, customers, growth prospects, sector prospects and leadership competence but mostly centered in financial measures such as P/E ratios etc. Valuation is a proper economic discipline by itself taught in universities. OK, now throw everything out of the window!. This kind of analysis is impossible in vague concepts and innovations that are currently cryptocurrencies. Ethereum was frequently priced at the fictional price of gas when all financial systems on earth run on the platform after decades (a bit of exaggeration here). No project is currently profitable enough to justify a valuation multiple that is usually equal to P/E in the thousands or more. As such we need to take other things into account. What I do is included in the list below:
Check Github. You need to make sure there is active development for the platform and it's a very bad sign if the project is either keeping the code closed source or even worse there is simply no development. No projects are "complete".
Check Website. If the website is written in bad English the Chinese google translate type it means that they are not serious enough to produce an unbreakable decentralized project. If you can't write English you can't change the world, period. That's a deal breaker.
Check Team's Linkedin. Numerous projects have either fake Linkedin accounts or the team is comprised mainly by unexperienced employees that are even shown to be working in other companies currently.
Check backers. Projects that have Binance, Coinbase or Silicon Valley VC funds backing them are way more legit but way more overpriced too!
One of my favorite ways to value altcoins that is based on the same principle in the stock market is to look at peers and decide what is the maximum cap it can grow to. As an example you take a second layer Ethereum solution that has an ICO and you want to decide if you will enter or not. You can take a look at other coins that are in the same business and compare their market caps. Thinking that your coin will outperform by a lot the top coins currently is overly optimistic so I usually take a lower valuation as a target price. If the initial offering is directly implying a valuation that is more than that then there is no room to grow according to my analysis and I skip it. Many times this has proven me wrong because it's a game theory problem where if many people think irrationally in a market it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. But since there is opportunity cost involved, in the long run, getting in initial offerings that have a lot of room to grow will pay off as a strategy.
In 2017 the sexiest sector was platforms and then coins including privacy ones. Platforms are obviously still a highly rated sector because everything is being built on them, but privacy is not as hot as it used to be. In 2018 DEXes were all they hype but still people are massively using centralized exchanges. In 2020 Defi is the hottest sector and it includes platforms, oracles and Defi projects. What I am saying is that a project gets extra points if it's a Defi one in 2020 and minus points if it's a payment system that will conquer the world as it was in 2017 because that's old news. This is closely related to the next section.
Needless to say that the crypto market is a worse FOMO type of inexperienced trigger happy yolo investors , much worse than the Robinhood crowd that drove a bankrupt company's stock 1200% after they declared bankruptcy. The result is that there are numerous projects that are basically either vaporware or just so overhyped that their valuation has no connection to reality. Should we avoid those kind of projects? No and I will explain why. There are many very good technically projects that had zero hype potential due to incompetent marketing departments that made them tank. An example (without shilling because I sold out a while back) is Quantum Resistant Ledger. This project has amazing quantum resistant blockchain, the only one running now, has a platform that people can build tokens and messaging systems and other magnificent stuff. Just check how they fared up to now and you will get the point. A project *needs* to have a hype factor because you cannot judge it as normal stocks that you can do value investing like Warren Buffet does where a company will inevitable post sales and profitability numbers and investors will get dividends. Actually the last sentence is the most important: No dividends. Even projects that give you tokens or coins as dividends are not real dividends because if the coin tanks the value of the dividend tanks. This is NOT the case with company stocks where you get dollars even if the company stock tanks. All that being said, I would advice against betting on projects that have a lot of hype but little substance (but that should be obvious!).
How to construct your portfolio
My strategy and philosophy in investing is that risk should be proportional to investment capital. That means that if you are investing 100K in the crypto market your portfolio should be very different than someone investing 1K because 10% annual gains are nothing in the latter while they are very significant in the former. Starting from this principle each individual needs to construct a portfolio according to how much risk he wants to take. I will emphasize two important concepts that play well with what I said. In the first instance of a big portfolio you should concentrate on this mantra: "Diversification is the only free meal in finance". In the case of a small portfolio then this mantra is more important: "Concentrate to create wealth, diversify to maintain wealth". Usually in a big portfolio you would want to hold some big coins such as BTC and ETH to weather the ups and downs explained in previous paragraphs while generating profits and keep progressively smaller parts of your portfolio for riskier investments. Maybe 50% of this portfolio could be big caps and 10% very risky initial offerings. Adapting risk progressively to smaller portfolios makes sense but I think it would be irrational to keep more than 30% of a portfolio no matter what tied to one coin due to the very high risk of bankruptcy.
The altseason is supposedly coming every 3 months. Truth is that nobody can predict it but altcoins can be profitable no matter what. Forget about maximalists who are stuck in their dogmas. Altcoins deliver different value propositions and it makes sense because we are very far from a situation where some project offers everything like Amazon and we wouldn't even want that in the first place since we are talking about decentralization and not a winner takes all and becomes a monster kind of scenario! Some last minute advice:
Stay out of paid telegram/discord pump groups. They are deadly for your wallet.
Avoid jumping on overhyped coins that have pumped massively during the last days without any very important news.
Don't keep coins in obscure exchanges for too long or you will get burned with certainty.
Stop thinking that your coin will 1000x and overtake Bitcoin!
P.S If you find value in reading this and want more weekly consider subscribing to my newsletterhere
Hi Bitcoiners! I’m back with the 23rd monthly Bitcoin news recap. For those unfamiliar, each day I pick out the most popularelevant/interesting stories in Bitcoin and save them. At the end of the month I release them in one batch, to give you a quick (but not necessarily the best) overview of what happened in bitcoin over the past month. You can see recaps of the previous months on Bitcoinsnippets.com A recap of Bitcoin in November 2018 Adoption
Free to Enter League of Legends Tournament | Equivalent 500 USD Prize Pool | Starts March 18th @ 6pm EDT (check in 5pm) | Payouts in cryptocurrency called Ark
My team is here to announce a League of Legends tournament that is completely free to join with an equivalent prize pool of $500. I just want to reiterate, we are not asking for funding for these tournaments. They are completely funded via Ark, keep reading to find out more. I will cut right to the chase before giving you all the background and context which you probably do not care about - you just want the tournaments!
1st: $300 (~92 ARK*)2nd: $150 (~46 ARK)3rd: $50 (~15 ARK*) DATE: March 18th START TIME: 6pm EDT (10pm UTC) CHECK IN TIME: 5pm EDT (9pm UTC) REGION: North America
EDIT: EU Is not supported for this tournament any longer - our deepest apologies for the inconvenience. We will have a EU based tournament next weekend.
Payouts will be in ARK to either a victor's Ark wallet or Binance wallet right after the victors have verified their identities via Discord/Battlefy. As soon as 6pm EDT hits, the final prizes in ARK will be recalculated to match the USD amounts and will be locked in, then every single participant will know exactly what the stakes are. This will also help deal with price fluctuations while the tournament progresses. All other rules regarding the tournament have been added to the Battlefy page itself, found at the top. If you have any questions/comments/concerns, or just want to play some games join us on Discord!
Price Bitcoin Today shows the most accurate crypto live prices, charts and market rates from trusted top crypto exchanges globally. Price Bitcoin Today has over 1600+ cryptocurrencies, trusted historical data, and details of active, upcoming and finished initial coin offerings. Since then the price has dropped a hair but the price of bitcoin (BTC) is still up 4.3% over the last seven days. Long term holders have seen a 72.4% increase during the last 12 months, 34.9% ... Bitcoin(BTC) price takes a cliff jump, cryptocurrency markets loose $13 Billion. Ishan Garg Posted On September 25, 2018 0. 27. Shares. Share On Facebook; Tweet It; Since 2013, the Bitcoin(BTC) price has always shown a strong last quarter. With the recent price rise of Ripple(XRP), many started wondering whether the last quarter bull run has started. It got more evident after the market added ... Press J to jump to the feed. Press question mark to learn the rest of the keyboard shortcuts . Log in sign up. User account menu. 87. Binance CEO Expects $2 Trillion Market Cap of Bitcoin and Price Value will Reach $100,000 as a result. Technical Analysis. Close. 87. Posted by. Coal 5 months old. 6 months ago. Archived. Binance CEO Expects $2 Trillion Market Cap of Bitcoin and Price Value ... Let's jump right into our bitcoin price summary. Be sure to bookmark and visit us daily. Let’s Start From the Very Beginning of Bitcoin Shall We: Many of our regular readers are probably well aware of by now, on December 19, 2017 the price of bitcoin (BTC) skyrocketed to an astonishing amount near $20,000 USD ($19,831 per Coinbase) and had a best-ever $327 billion market cap on December 16 ... Price of Bitcoin monthly in euros 2016-2020; Level of interest in use of Bitcoin for internet purchases in the U.S. 2013; Leading benefits of using Bitcoin as a means of payment in the U.S. 2013 Bitcoin price crashes 86% from the 2013 top. As of July 2020, the range of the previous bear market low around $3,000 have been retested but never broken. If that low would have been breached, a stronger argument could be made that a multi-year Bitcoin bear market is still underway. Bitcoin retesting the range of its previous bear market low. About Bitcoin. Bitcoin price today is $15,507.43 USD with a 24-hour trading volume of $40,726,877,345 USD. Bitcoin is up 9.91% in the last 24 hours. The current CoinMarketCap ranking is #1, with a market cap of $287,430,180,047 USD. It has a circulating supply of 18,534,993 BTC coins and a max. supply of 21,000,000 BTC coins. The top exchanges for trading in Bitcoin are currently Binance ... Binance is considered as a centralized cryptocurrency exchange broker as it only directly deals with crypto-based assets such as Bitcoin, Altcoins or ICO tokens. Buying and selling of select cryptocurrencies is permitted through Binance’s partnership with Simplex. Users can quickly exchange their coins and tokens without even submitting any documentation to verify their account. Unverified ... Others, such as social media commentator Tone Vays, have warned the pair could reach its 2013 highs of $1300 — or fall even lower. Such volatility would likely pile pressure on altcoins, which have continued to fluctuate around the Bitcoin price in recent months. On Tuesday, it was Litecoin (LTC) and Binance Coin (BNB) leading growth in the top twenty cryptocurrencies by market cap, seeing ...
The Recession Is Here, Bitcoin Jumps 22%, Bitcoin + Starbucks & Crypto Lending Rising
Bitcoin Price Jumps, TRON Is A ....., Ethereum Price Explosion, XRP Evolution & Stellar Bank The Modern Investor. Loading... Unsubscribe from The Modern Investor? Cancel Unsubscribe. Working ... Today we saw Bitcoin briefly climb over $8,000 before falling lower again. It remains just under this level. Last week we saw it hit its highest level so far this year climbing past $8,300 on ... NEW CHANNEL: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCH9HlTrjyLmLRS0iE1P4rrg ----- Rich Dad Poor Dad: https://amzn.to/3cKJ4Ia C... My Second Channel: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCvXjP6h0_4CSBPVgHqfO-UA ----- Supp... Bitcoin Price Jumps, Massive Power Grab, Binance In China, Ripple + Santander & Games On Tezos The Modern Investor. Loading... Unsubscribe from The Modern Investor? Cancel Unsubscribe. Working ... Bitcoin price jumps 15% overnight, breaking the $4100 resistance violently. next resistance is $5000, after that a minor resistance at $5500 and a huge resistance at $5800/$6000. Close. This video is unavailable.